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Understanding the American Presidential Selection Process

Amerika Haus
Vienna, December 3, 2007

PROGRAM BRIEF (pdf) - prepared by the American Reference Center

Remarks by Public Affairs Officer Robert Hugins, U.S. Embassy Vienna

‘It will be all over by February 5th (Maybe?)’ was one of the questions political scientist and Fulbright Professor Ron Hrebenar of the University of Utah tried to answer in his talk on the upcoming U.S. presidential elections. On December 3 Prof. Hrebenar explained the American electoral process and the current state of the candidates’ campaigns to a packed Amerika Haus in Vienna. He pointed out that neither the Republicans nor the Democrats have a sure winner among their candidates. Nearly 200 high school students, academia, journalists, and the general public attended the talk. The lively Q & A that lasted for nearly one hour showed the high interest Austrians are taking in the 2008 presidential elections. Public Affairs Officer Robert Hugins, U.S. Embassy Vienna underscored in his opening remarks that never before in American history have primaries been held that early in an election year, which makes the outcome particularly unpredictable.


Public Affairs Officer Robert Hugins, U.S. Embassy Vienna, giving his welcoming remarks	Fulbright-Vienna University Distinguished Chair in the Social Sciences and Humanities Prof. Ronald Hrebenar


Audience at the Amerika Haus	Prof. Hrebenar discussing with guests. Background right: Univ.-Prof. Dr. Heinz Tschachler, President of the Austrian Association for American Studies (AAAS)

Remarks by Public Affairs Officer Robert Hugins

Good evening, Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome to Amerika Haus and tonight's program. I am Bob Hugins, the Counselor for Public Affairs of the U.S. Embassy.

Judging by the full house we have tonight, the U.S. presidential elections are of great interest to Austrians - I might say to the world. I'm especially pleased to see so many young students in the audience.

The contest for the White House has always been protracted, expensive and faintly insane. This time, however, it has surpassed all previous standards. It started, in effect, with the midterm elections in which the Democrats captured control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. It will end a year hence when the voters decide who the next occupant of the Oval Office will be.

The dynamics of the race have been fundamentally, possibly permanently, altered. The pre-campaign has been extended at the same time as the actual nomination season has shortened drastically. It used to be that Iowa and New Hampshire held their caucuses and primaries in February of a presidential election year. A number of bigger states held a "Super Tuesday" in March. If there was still no decisive result, the circus rolled on elsewhere into April, by which time a contender would invariably have emerged as unstoppable. The winner would then have a couple of months to pause before being nominated officially in the summer and would then conduct a final dash for victory or defeat in the November showdown.

Not this time. The Iowa caucus will be held on January 3, the earliest date ever. The New Hampshire primary will take place on January 8.

Meanwhile, many of the larger states have moved their primaries forward to February 5. It is quite possible that the identities of the Democratic and Republican candidates will, to all intents and purposes, be plain by the morning after those elections.

All this means that the timetable has now been so compressed that the US will have to endure a full nine months of intense battle between the two individuals who have been selected. It will be exhausting. And it also explains why this presidential election is so peculiarly unpredictable.

Tonight we will hear an expert's take on the primaries, the impact of the new schedule, as well as generally explaining the American presidential selection process.

I'm very pleased that Professor Ron Hrebenar has accepted the invitation to speak at the Amerika Haus. Professor Hrebenar is the Fulbright-University of Vienna Distinguished Chair in the Social Sciences and Humanities, a Professor and former Chair of the Department of Political Science at the University of Utah and former Director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah. He is the author and editor of a dozen books, and over 30 articles and chapters on the topics of interest groups, lobbying, political parties and elections in the United States and Japan. Dr. Hrebenar regularly teaches classes on political parties and elections, interest groups and lobbying. Ron, welcome to Amerika Haus. The floor is yours.